Malmo FF 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eleda Stadion plays host to Malmo FF versus Vasteras SK FK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Malmo FF's home record at Eleda Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion.
Vasteras SK FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Malmo FF against 2.00 for Vasteras SK FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 43% versus Vasteras SK FK 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 67% | Vasteras SK FK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.75 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.178 / defence 0.787 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.717 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.386. Malmo FF's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Malmo FF games / 3 Vasteras SK FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 60% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Vasteras SK FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 40% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 60% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Malmo FF 1.75 / Vasteras SK FK 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.178 / def 0.787 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.717 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Vasteras SK FK xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Malmo FF 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 60% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Malmo FF's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.72x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.31
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.53
0.78
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
3%
35.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.78 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 20W 4D 6L from 30 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 10L across 30 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasteras SK FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 11W 3D 1L from 15 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Malmo FF are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.67 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 67%.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 20W 4D 6L in their last 30 games (2.13 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.40 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Malmo FF
1
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 3 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 47%, Vasteras SK FK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Malmo FF and 47% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Malmo FF's matches and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Malmo FF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.75 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.78 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.18 / defence 0.79 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 60% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 16%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 67%, Vasteras SK FK 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.