BK Hacken 2-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BK Hacken and Hammarby FF meet at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BK Hacken's home record at Bravida Arena: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hammarby FF (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hammarby FF's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: BK Hacken 1W, Hammarby FF 0W, 4D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 73% and Hammarby FF 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 68% | Hammarby FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.80 xG and Hammarby FF 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.284 / defence 1.101 | Hammarby FF attack 0.817 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.306. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 BK Hacken games / 33 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 52% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 25%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Hammarby FF 4.00. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BK Hacken if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: BK Hacken 70% | Hammarby FF 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 52% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG BK Hacken 1.80 / Hammarby FF 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.284 / def 1.101 | Hammarby FF attack 0.817 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hammarby FF xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
BK Hacken 2 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF part of?
BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 52% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both BK Hacken and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
Record (5 meetings): BK Hacken 1W | Draws 4 | Hammarby FF 0W.
What form are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.28) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (0.82x) against BK Hacken's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.32
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.97
1.18
Hammarby FF xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
4%
24.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.18 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BK Hacken come into this having played 60 games, going 36W 13D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.67 PPG from 60 outings (27W 19D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.02 PPG for BK Hacken against 1.67 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
BK Hacken's home form reads 23W 4D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BK Hacken are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.68 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 games (2.02 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Hammarby FF away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.43 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.30 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-0 on 21 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BK Hacken have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
BK Hacken
5
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when BK Hacken 3-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 80%, Hammarby FF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for BK Hacken and 40% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of BK Hacken's games and 33% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of BK Hacken's matches and 40% of Hammarby FF's.
Do BK Hacken and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out Hammarby FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Hammarby FF 2-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.80 xG and Hammarby FF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.28 / defence 1.10 against Hammarby FF attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 52% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 25%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 68%, Hammarby FF 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 2.02 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.