IFK Goteborg 3-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IFK Goteborg (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Goteborg face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 4 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward IFK Goteborg. A 1.10 PPG lead over Degerfors IF (1.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours IFK Goteborg, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Degerfors IF — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2025, ended 3–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IFK Goteborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 53% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 2.12 xG and Degerfors IF 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.982 / defence 1.010 | Degerfors IF attack 0.962 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.321. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 IFK Goteborg games / 17 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 56% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 22%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Degerfors IF 4.55. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 70% | Degerfors IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 4 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 56% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG IFK Goteborg 2.12 / Degerfors IF 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.982 / def 1.010 | Degerfors IF attack 0.962 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Degerfors IF xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 August 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg 3 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 56% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (7 meetings): IFK Goteborg 5W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.96x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.64
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.41
1.28
Degerfors IF xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
3%
37.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.28 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 15W 11D 21L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF's form line: 19W 12D 16L from 47 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.47 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
Degerfors IF's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.09 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 6-0 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
IFK Goteborg
0
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Degerfors IF 3-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 56%, Degerfors IF 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (IFK Goteborg) and 52% (Degerfors IF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of IFK Goteborg's games and 61% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 52% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Degerfors IF 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 2.12 xG and Degerfors IF 1.28 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Degerfors IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.49, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 56% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 22%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.19 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.