Gais 3-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host Hammarby FF at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 July 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Gais) versus 2.10 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Gais have won 0, Hammarby FF 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 48% versus Hammarby FF 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 43% | Hammarby FF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 0.78 xG and Hammarby FF 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.825 / defence 0.759 | Hammarby FF attack 1.072 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.255. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Gais's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Gais games / 45 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Hammarby FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gais's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gais 40% | Hammarby FF 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jul 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Gais 0.78 / Hammarby FF 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.825 / def 0.759 | Hammarby FF attack 1.072 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hammarby FF xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Gais vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 July 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Gais 3 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is Gais vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Hammarby FF part of?
Gais vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 27% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Gais and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 0W.
What form are Gais and Hammarby FF in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.82) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
27%
3.69
33%
3.05
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Gais xG
Total xG
1.80
1.02
Hammarby FF xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 16.8 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Gais and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Gais and 1.02 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gais come into this having played 44 games, going 19W 13D 12L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.91 PPG from 44 outings (25W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.59 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gais's home form reads 11W 7D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.61 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 25W 9D 10L in their last 44 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Hammarby FF away?
Gais's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.90 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Gais or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and Hammarby FF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gais's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gais
2
Draws
1
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Hammarby FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Gais have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Hammarby FF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 43%, Hammarby FF 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gais) and 48% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 52%; Gais have failed to score in 33% of games; Hammarby FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gais's recent matches and 29% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gais's recent games and 48% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Hammarby FF 3-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 0.78 xG and Hammarby FF 1.02 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.82 / defence 0.76 against Hammarby FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 27% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 40%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 43%, Hammarby FF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.59 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.