AIK Stockholm 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AIK Stockholm face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF meet at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
AIK Stockholm's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AIK Stockholm's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Hammarby FF have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for AIK Stockholm, 1.80 for Hammarby FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for AIK Stockholm, 2 for Hammarby FF and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended AIK Stockholm 1–0 Hammarby FF — a AIK Stockholm win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus Hammarby FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 48% | Hammarby FF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.46 xG and Hammarby FF 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.249 / defence 0.805 | Hammarby FF attack 1.085 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.405. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 39 games and Hammarby FF's last 39.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 42% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 32%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.36 | Draw 3.89 | Hammarby FF 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Hammarby FF 10% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 10 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 42% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.46 / Hammarby FF 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.249 / def 0.805 | Hammarby FF attack 1.085 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hammarby FF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 10) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 42% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.08x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 39 games and Hammarby FF's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.89
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.69
1.23
Hammarby FF xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.23 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 12D 22L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.63 PPG from 60 outings (27W 17D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for AIK Stockholm against 1.63 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Hammarby FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Hammarby FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.83 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AIK Stockholm have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: AIK Stockholm 3-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, Hammarby FF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AIK Stockholm) and 43% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 30% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 43% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 53% of Hammarby FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AIK Stockholm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 10, as AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.46 xG and Hammarby FF 1.23 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.25 / defence 0.81 against Hammarby FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 42% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 32%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.