Mjallby AIF 1-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Mjallby AIF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for IF Brommapojkarna and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus IF Brommapojkarna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.92 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.300 / defence 0.785 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.250 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.361. Mjallby AIF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Brommapojkarna have an above-average attack strength of 1.250 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Mjallby AIF games / 38 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.85. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
IF Brommapojkarna lead the H2H ledger, but Mjallby AIF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | IF Brommapojkarna 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.92 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.300 / def 0.785 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.250 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
IF Brommapojkarna xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 May 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 51% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (4 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 2 | IF Brommapojkarna 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.40
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.25
1.33
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
4%
25.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.33 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 26W 13D 21L from 60 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 27L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.52 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 13W 8D 9L from 30 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.52 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Mjallby AIF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, IF Brommapojkarna 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 63% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.92 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.30 / defence 0.79 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.25 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.