Sevilla 1-3 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sevilla (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sevilla face Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán plays host to Sevilla versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 18 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mallorca (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sevilla's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Sevilla 3W, Mallorca 1W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 59% versus Mallorca 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 46% | Mallorca 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.79 xG and Mallorca 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.108 / defence 1.157 | Mallorca attack 0.902 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.149. Data: 46 Sevilla games / 46 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 51% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 25%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 4.00. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Mallorca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 51% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Sevilla 1.79 / Mallorca 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.108 / def 1.157 | Mallorca attack 0.902 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Mallorca xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Mallorca kick off?
Sevilla vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Sevilla 1 - 3 Mallorca.
Where is Sevilla vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Mallorca part of?
Sevilla vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 51% chance of winning, Mallorca a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sevilla and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Mallorca?
Record (8 meetings): Sevilla 3W | Draws 4 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Sevilla and Mallorca in?
Sevilla (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Mallorca (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sevilla's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.90x) against Sevilla's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.11
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.99
1.20
Mallorca xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
4%
23.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.20 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 14W 12D 20L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 14W 11D 21L from 46 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Sevilla against 1.15 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 6W 3D 14L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Mallorca away?
Sevilla's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.22 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 4-1 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sevilla
4
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Mallorca have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 61%, Mallorca 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sevilla) and 39% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Sevilla's recent matches and 44% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sevilla's recent games and 39% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Mallorca tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sevilla.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Sevilla 1-3 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.79 xG and Mallorca 1.20 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Mallorca attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 51% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 25%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 46%, Mallorca 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.17 PPG, Mallorca 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.