Osasuna 2-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osasuna (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Osasuna face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Osasuna have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Osasuna have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alaves — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Alaves away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Osasuna's games and 60% of Alaves's (from Osasuna's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Osasuna hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Alaves and 0 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2024, ended Osasuna 1–0 Alaves — a Osasuna win.
The head-to-head data gives Osasuna an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (last 53 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Alaves trading profile (last 53 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Alaves 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 45% | Alaves 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.82 xG and Alaves 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.043 / defence 1.039 | Alaves attack 0.860 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.168. Alaves's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Osasuna's last 53 games and Alaves's last 53.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 56% | Draw 23% | Alaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.80 | Draw 4.37 | Alaves 4.65. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 80% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 56% | Draw 23% | Alaves 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Osasuna 1.82 / Alaves 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.043 / def 1.039 | Alaves attack 0.860 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Alaves xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Alaves kick off?
Osasuna vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Osasuna 2 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Osasuna vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Alaves part of?
Osasuna vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 56% chance of winning, Alaves a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.04) and Alaves's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 53 games and Alaves's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.37
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.04
Alaves xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
28.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.04 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 14D 21L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.13 PPG from 53 outings (16W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.28 PPG, Alaves on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.98 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Alaves
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Alaves have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Alaves away?
Osasuna's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.48 PPG; Alaves away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won Osasuna 3-0 Alaves.
Osasuna's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Osasuna
3
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 5, Alaves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Alaves 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Alaves?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 52%, Alaves 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Osasuna) and 44% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Alaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Osasuna's recent matches and 44% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Osasuna's recent games and 44% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Osasuna's recent matches and 67% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 16, as Osasuna and Alaves drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.82 xG and Alaves 1.04 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Alaves attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 56% | Draw 23% | Alaves 22%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 45%, Alaves 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.28 PPG, Alaves 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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