Espanyol 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 45%, yet in-form Osasuna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Espanyol vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Espanyol welcome Osasuna to RCDE Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's home record at RCDE Stadium: 4W 0D 3L from 7 La Liga appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osasuna — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Espanyol, 1 for Osasuna and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Espanyol in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Espanyol 60% and Osasuna 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 60% | Osasuna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.56 xG and Osasuna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.965 / defence 1.188 | Osasuna attack 0.886 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.176. Data: 15 Espanyol games / 54 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 45% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 30%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Osasuna 3.33. Espanyol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 71% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 45% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Espanyol 1.56 / Osasuna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.965 / def 1.188 | Osasuna attack 0.886 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Osasuna xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Osasuna kick off?
Espanyol vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Espanyol 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Espanyol vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Osasuna part of?
Espanyol vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 45% chance of winning, Osasuna a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Espanyol and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Osasuna?
Record (4 meetings): Espanyol 0W | Draws 3 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Espanyol and Osasuna in?
Espanyol (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Espanyol's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.02
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.80
1.24
Osasuna xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
6%
15.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.24 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Espanyol come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 1D 10L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Espanyol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Espanyol's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Espanyol have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Osasuna in 60%.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Osasuna away?
Espanyol's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.71 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Espanyol have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Espanyol's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Espanyol
4
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Osasuna?
From 9 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 3, Osasuna have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Osasuna 0-2 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Osasuna?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 71%, Osasuna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Espanyol) and 43% (Osasuna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Espanyol have failed to score in 29% of games; Osasuna in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Espanyol's games and 43% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Espanyol vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Espanyol's matches and 43% of Osasuna's.
Do Espanyol and Osasuna tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Espanyol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol and Osasuna finished level at 0-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.56 xG and Osasuna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Espanyol fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 45% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 30%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 60%, Osasuna 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.