Leganes 1-0 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leganes at 37%, yet in-form Sevilla provide a compelling counter-argument — this Leganes vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Sevilla travel to Estadio Municipal de Butarque to take on Leganes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Leganes have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Leganes are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Butarque than their overall form suggests.
Sevilla — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sevilla are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Leganes trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sevilla trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 50% versus Sevilla 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Leganes 33% | Sevilla 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.20 xG and Sevilla 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.783 / defence 0.955 | Sevilla attack 1.047 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.078. Leganes's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Leganes games / 50 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 37% | Draw 31% | Sevilla 31%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Sevilla 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leganes are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sevilla (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leganes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Leganes 20% | Sevilla 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 37% | Draw 31% | Sevilla 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Leganes 1.20 / Sevilla 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.783 / def 0.955 | Sevilla attack 1.047 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Leganes (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sevilla xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Sevilla kick off?
Leganes vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Sevilla?
Leganes 1 - 0 Sevilla.
Where is Leganes vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Sevilla part of?
Leganes vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 37% chance of winning, Sevilla a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Leganes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Leganes and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Sevilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leganes and Sevilla in?
Leganes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Sevilla (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Leganes vs Sevilla?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Leganes's attack at 0.78x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Leganes's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leganes Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.19
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.28
1.08
Sevilla xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Leganes and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Leganes and 1.08 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leganes's recent record stands at 2W 5D 5L from 12 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Leganes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 5L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leganes on 0.92 PPG, Sevilla on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Leganes have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Leganes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sevilla's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Leganes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Sevilla away?
Leganes's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.40 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Leganes or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leganes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sevilla in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Leganes
1
Draws
0
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Sevilla?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 1, Sevilla have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Sevilla 2-2 Leganes.
Who has won more matches between Leganes and Sevilla?
Leganes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leganes tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leganes 20%, Sevilla 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Leganes) and 40% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Leganes keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sevilla in 40%; Leganes have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Leganes's recent matches and 60% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Leganes's recent games and 40% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leganes and Sevilla tend to score early?
Leganes have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leganes edge out Sevilla 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leganes beat Sevilla 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.20 xG and Sevilla 1.08 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sevilla landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.78 / defence 0.95 against Sevilla attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 37% | Draw 31% | Sevilla 31%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 33%, Sevilla 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Sevilla's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leganes 0.92 PPG, Sevilla 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leganes win broke the near-deadlock. Leganes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.