Las Palmas 0-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Girona travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Las Palmas — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Las Palmas at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Las Palmas are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Girona have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Las Palmas, 1 for Girona and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Las Palmas 0–1 Girona — a Girona win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 41% versus Girona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 31% | Girona 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.12 xG and Girona 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.732 / defence 1.101 | Girona attack 1.011 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.084. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 32 games and Girona's last 70.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 33% | Draw 29% | Girona 38%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.01 | Draw 3.44 | Girona 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 40% (last 10 home games) | Girona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 33 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 33% | Draw 29% | Girona 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Las Palmas 1.12 / Girona 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.732 / def 1.101 | Girona attack 1.011 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Girona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Girona xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Girona kick off?
Las Palmas vs Girona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Girona?
Las Palmas 0 - 2 Girona.
Where is Las Palmas vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Girona part of?
Las Palmas vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 33) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 33% chance of winning, Girona a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Las Palmas and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Las Palmas vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.73) and Girona's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 32 games and Girona's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.44
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.32
1.21
Girona xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.21 for Girona, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 10W 7D 15L from 32 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 6L across 32 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Las Palmas heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 6W 4D 6L from their last 16 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across their last 16 away games, a 1.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.09 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
Las Palmas (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Girona in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Girona have gone 21W 5D 6L in their last 32 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.38 PPG; Girona away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Girona in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Las Palmas's record when hosting Girona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
0
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Girona?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 1, Girona have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2025: Girona 2-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 44%, Girona 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Las Palmas) and 56% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Las Palmas have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Girona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 62% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Las Palmas and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Las Palmas's recent games and 56% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 81% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Las Palmas.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Las Palmas 0-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.12 xG and Girona 1.21 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Las Palmas fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Girona attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 33% | Draw 29% | Girona 38%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 31%, Girona 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Girona's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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