Almeria 1-3 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Getafe travel to Power Horse Stadium to take on Almeria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almeria stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Almeria at Power Horse Stadium this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Getafe have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almeria at 0.80 PPG versus Getafe's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Almeria have won 2, Getafe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Getafe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Almeria in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Getafe in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 64% versus Getafe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 63% | Getafe 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.11 xG and Getafe 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.759 / defence 1.345 | Getafe attack 0.890 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.090. Almeria's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Almeria games / 70 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 31% | Draw 28% | Getafe 41%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Getafe 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 40% | Getafe 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 31% | Draw 28% | Getafe 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Almeria 1.11 / Getafe 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.759 / def 1.345 | Getafe attack 0.890 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Getafe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Getafe xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Getafe kick off?
Almeria vs Getafe kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Getafe?
Almeria 1 - 3 Getafe.
Where is Almeria vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Getafe part of?
Almeria vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 31% chance of winning, Getafe a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Almeria and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Getafe?
Record (3 meetings): Almeria 2W | Draws 0 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Almeria and Getafe in?
Almeria (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Getafe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almeria's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Getafe's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.53
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.42
1.30
Getafe xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Almeria and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Almeria and 1.30 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria's recent record stands at 12W 19D 39L from 70 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 19W 25D 26L across 70 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 0.79 PPG, Getafe on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almeria have managed 10W 11D 14L from 35 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 4W 14D 17L across 35 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.03 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Getafe in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 12W 19D 39L in their last 70 games (0.79 PPG), while Getafe have gone 19W 25D 26L in their last 70 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Getafe away?
Almeria's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.17 PPG; Getafe away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Almeria or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Getafe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Getafe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Almeria's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Almeria
0
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Getafe?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 2, Getafe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Almeria 1-3 Getafe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 60%, Getafe 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Almeria) and 43% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 31% of games; Getafe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Almeria's recent matches and 49% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Almeria's recent games and 43% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Getafe tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Getafe in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Almeria 1-3 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.11 xG and Getafe 1.30 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Getafe outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.76 / defence 1.34 against Getafe attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 31% | Draw 28% | Getafe 41%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 63%, Getafe 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 0.79 PPG, Getafe 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.