Las Palmas 0-2 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 41%, yet in-form Athletic Club provide a compelling counter-argument — this Las Palmas vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Athletic Club travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Las Palmas stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Las Palmas are significantly better at Estadio de Gran Canaria than their overall form suggests.
Athletic Club — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Athletic Club are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Las Palmas, 1 for Athletic Club and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Athletic Club winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 44% versus Athletic Club 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 33% | Athletic Club 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.14 xG and Athletic Club 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.935 / defence 0.922 | Athletic Club attack 0.821 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.097. Data: 27 Las Palmas games / 65 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 41% | Draw 35% | Athletic Club 24%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Athletic Club 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Athletic Club (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Las Palmas 60% | Athletic Club 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 41% | Draw 35% | Athletic Club 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Las Palmas 1.14 / Athletic Club 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.935 / def 0.922 | Athletic Club attack 0.821 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Athletic Club xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Athletic Club kick off?
Las Palmas vs Athletic Club kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Athletic Club?
Las Palmas 0 - 2 Athletic Club.
Where is Las Palmas vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Athletic Club part of?
Las Palmas vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 41% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Las Palmas and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Athletic Club?
Record (1 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 0 | Athletic Club 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Athletic Club in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.94x the league average against Athletic Club's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
41%
2.46
35%
2.85
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
1.97
0.83
Athletic Club xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Las Palmas and 0.83 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 10W 7D 10L from 27 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 5L across 27 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Las Palmas heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 6W 4D 3L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 4W 5D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Athletic Club's season.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.70 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 games (1.37 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 14W 8D 5L in their last 27 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Athletic Club away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.69 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Las Palmas and Athletic Club runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Athletic Club have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Las Palmas's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
0
Draws
4
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Athletic Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 0, Athletic Club have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2025, when Athletic Club 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 54%, Athletic Club 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Las Palmas and 23% for Athletic Club.
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Athletic Club in 46%; Athletic Club in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 31% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Las Palmas's recent games and 23% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Las Palmas.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Las Palmas 0-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.14 xG and Athletic Club 0.83 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Las Palmas fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Athletic Club outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Athletic Club attack 0.82 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 41% | Draw 35% | Athletic Club 24%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Athletic Club win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 33%, Athletic Club 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.