Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Athletic Club face Alaves.

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Analysis & Preview

Alaves travel to San Mamés Barria to take on Athletic Club in La Liga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Athletic Club stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Athletic Club at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Athletic Club are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Alaves have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Alaves have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Athletic Club) versus 1.60 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Athletic Club have won 2, Alaves 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Athletic Club 2–0 Alaves — a Athletic Club win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Athletic Club trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Alaves trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 36% versus Alaves 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 46% | Alaves 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.75 xG and Alaves 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.344 / defence 0.841 | Alaves attack 0.793 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.113. Athletic Club carry an above-average attack rating of 1.344 — their 1.75 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Alaves's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Athletic Club's last 66 games and Alaves's last 28.

Result probabilities: Athletic Club 60% | Draw 26% | Alaves 14%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.67 | Draw 3.83 | Alaves 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Athletic Club 40% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 50% (last 10 away games).

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