Girona 4-3 Leganes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Leganes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Municipal de Montilivi plays host to Girona versus Leganes in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Girona have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Leganes (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leganes's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 2L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Girona, 1.00 for Leganes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Leganes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 36% versus Leganes 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Girona 36% | Leganes 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.83 xG and Leganes 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.165 / defence 0.988 | Leganes attack 0.786 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.062. Data: 49 Girona games / 11 Leganes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 60% | Draw 25% | Leganes 15%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Leganes 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Girona (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Girona 50% | Leganes 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Leganes | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 60% | Draw 25% | Leganes 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Girona 1.83 / Leganes 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.165 / def 0.988 | Leganes attack 0.786 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Girona (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Leganes xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Leganes kick off?
Girona vs Leganes kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Leganes?
Girona 4 - 3 Leganes.
Where is Girona vs Leganes being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Leganes part of?
Girona vs Leganes is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Leganes?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 60% chance of winning, Leganes a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Leganes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Girona and Leganes will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Leganes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Leganes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Leganes in?
Girona (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Leganes (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Girona vs Leganes?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Girona's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Leganes's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Leganes's attack (0.79x) against Girona's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.07
15%
6.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Girona xG
Total xG
2.66
0.82
Leganes xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.56
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
41.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Leganes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Girona and Leganes expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Girona and 0.82 for Leganes, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Leganes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Girona have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 3W 3D 5L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leganes's form line: 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Leganes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Girona against 1.00 for Leganes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Leganes have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Leganes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Girona are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Leganes are on 0.82 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Leganes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Leganes in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Leganes have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Leganes away?
Girona's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.40 PPG; Leganes away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Girona
1
Draws
0
Leganes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Leganes?
From 2 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Leganes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Leganes last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Leganes 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Leganes?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Leganes see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 40%, Leganes 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Girona) and 20% (Leganes).
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Girona have failed to score in 40% of games; Leganes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Leganes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Leganes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Girona's recent matches and 60% of Leganes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Leganes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Girona's recent games and 20% of Leganes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Leganes tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Leganes in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Leganes 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Leganes 4-3 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.83 xG and Leganes 0.82 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leganes outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Leganes attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 60% | Draw 25% | Leganes 15%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 36%, Leganes 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Leganes's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.09 PPG, Leganes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.