Girona 4-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 72% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Girona face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Girona welcome Cadiz to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Girona's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cadiz away from home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Girona 1.30 PPG, Cadiz 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Girona, 1 for Cadiz and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Girona 1–0 Cadiz — a Girona win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Cadiz trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 64% versus Cadiz 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 59% | Cadiz 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.22 xG and Cadiz 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.539 / defence 0.959 | Cadiz attack 0.656 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.090. Girona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.539 — their 2.22 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.656 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from Girona's last 69 games and Cadiz's last 69.
Result probabilities: Girona 72% | Draw 18% | Cadiz 10%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.39 | Draw 5.53 | Cadiz 10.25. The model has a clear lean to Girona (72%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Girona 50% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 32 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 72% | Draw 18% | Cadiz 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Girona 2.22 / Cadiz 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.539 / def 0.959 | Cadiz attack 0.656 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Girona (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Cadiz xG
44%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Girona vs Cadiz kick off?
Girona vs Cadiz kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Cadiz?
Girona 4 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Girona vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Cadiz part of?
Girona vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 32) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 72% chance of winning, Cadiz a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Girona and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Girona vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 69 games and Cadiz's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.53
10%
10.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Girona xG
Total xG
2.90
0.69
Cadiz xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
10.25
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
11%
9.20
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
94.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Girona and 0.69 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 33W 15D 21L from 69 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 14W 25D 30L across 69 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 22W 5D 7L from their last 34 home games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cadiz's away record stands at 3W 12D 19L across their last 34 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.74 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
Girona (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Girona vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 33W 15D 21L in their last 69 games (1.65 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 14W 25D 30L in their last 69 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Cadiz away?
Girona's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.09 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Girona have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Apr 2024, when Girona won Girona 4-1 Cadiz.
Girona's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Girona
1
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Cadiz?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Girona and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Girona 4-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Cadiz?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 62%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Girona) and 21% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Girona's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Girona and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Girona's recent games and 21% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Girona's recent matches and 53% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Cadiz 4-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.22 xG and Cadiz 0.69 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.54 / defence 0.96 against Cadiz attack 0.66 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 72% | Draw 18% | Cadiz 10%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 59%, Cadiz 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Girona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Cadiz (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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