Almeria 1-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Villarreal (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almeria face Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Villarreal make the trip to Power Horse Stadium to face Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Almeria (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Almeria's home record at Power Horse Stadium: 0W 6D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Villarreal are 1.10 PPG clear of Almeria in recent La Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Villarreal have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Almeria's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Villarreal winning.
It is worth noting that Villarreal have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Almeria — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Villarreal — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almeria 64% and Villarreal 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 62% | Villarreal 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.26 xG and Villarreal 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.774 / defence 1.347 | Villarreal attack 1.351 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.090. Almeria's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Villarreal have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Almeria games / 69 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 24% | Draw 23% | Villarreal 54%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Villarreal 1.85. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 40% | Villarreal 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 24% | Draw 23% | Villarreal 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Almeria 1.26 / Villarreal 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.774 / def 1.347 | Villarreal attack 1.351 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Villarreal xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Villarreal kick off?
Almeria vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Villarreal?
Almeria 1 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Almeria vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Villarreal part of?
Almeria vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 24% chance of winning, Villarreal a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Almeria and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Villarreal?
Record (3 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 3W.
What form are Almeria and Villarreal in?
Almeria (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.77) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.35x) against Almeria's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
24%
4.25
23%
4.40
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Almeria xG
Total xG
3.24
1.98
Villarreal xG
4.25
24%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
3%
30.88
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Almeria and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Almeria and 1.98 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almeria come into this having played 69 games, going 12W 19D 38L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Villarreal sit at 1.49 PPG from 69 outings (29W 16D 24L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Villarreal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Almeria's home form reads 10W 11D 13L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Villarreal have taken 1.32 points per game from 34 outings (12W 9D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Almeria are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.57 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Villarreal in 64%.
Last 69 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 12W 19D 38L in their last 69 games (0.80 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 29W 16D 24L in their last 69 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.21 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
0
Draws
4
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Villarreal?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Villarreal have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Almeria 1-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 59%, Villarreal 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Almeria) and 53% (Villarreal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Almeria's games and 59% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Almeria's matches and 53% of Villarreal's.
Do Almeria and Villarreal tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Almeria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Almeria 1-2 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.26 xG and Villarreal 1.98 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.77 / defence 1.35 against Villarreal attack 1.35 / defence 1.20, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 24% | Draw 23% | Villarreal 54%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 62%, Villarreal 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.