Girona 4-3 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Girona at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Atletico Madrid encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Girona welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Wednesday 3 January 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Girona have gone 8W 2D 0L — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Girona have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Atletico Madrid — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Atletico Madrid's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Girona are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Girona have won 0, Atletico Madrid 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Mar 2023, ended Girona 0–1 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Girona trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Atletico Madrid trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 70% and Atletico Madrid 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 61% | Atletico Madrid 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.65 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.342 / defence 1.017 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.088 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.104. Girona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.342 — their 1.65 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Girona's last 56 games and Atletico Madrid's last 56.

Result probabilities: Girona 45% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 26%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.20 | Draw 3.53 | Atletico Madrid 3.82. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Atletico Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Girona 50% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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