Granada CF 0-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Granada CF welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Granada CF's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Granada CF are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes than their overall form suggests.

Atletico Madrid — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Atletico Madrid's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Granada CF, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Atletico Madrid winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Granada CF in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Atletico Madrid in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 55% versus Atletico Madrid 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 45% | Atletico Madrid 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.26 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.876 / defence 1.341 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.203 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.161. Atletico Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Granada CF games / 57 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Granada CF 24% | Draw 25% | Atletico Madrid 50%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Atletico Madrid 2.00. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Granada CF 70% | Atletico Madrid 30%.

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