Cadiz 2-0 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cadiz face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Atletico Madrid meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Cadiz (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Cadiz have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Atletico Madrid arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Atletico Madrid have the stronger record — 4 wins to Cadiz's 1, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Cadiz 2–3 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Atletico Madrid have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Atletico Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 38% versus Atletico Madrid 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 28% | Atletico Madrid 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.01 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.742 / defence 1.193 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.082 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.112. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Cadiz's last 65 games and Atletico Madrid's last 65.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Atletico Madrid 45%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.13 | Draw 3.21 | Atletico Madrid 2.24. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Madrid at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Atletico Madrid 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Cadiz 1.01 / Atletico Madrid 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.742 / def 1.193 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.082 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Atletico Madrid xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Cadiz 2 - 0 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 24% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cadiz and Atletico Madrid will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (1.08x) against Cadiz's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 65 games and Atletico Madrid's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
24%
4.13
31%
3.21
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.44
1.44
Atletico Madrid xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
6%
17.33
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.44 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 65 games, going 12W 25D 28L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 2.03 PPG from 65 outings (40W 12D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 9W 13D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 32 away games (14W 8D 10L). That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.91 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Cadiz (Home) vs Atletico Madrid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 25D 28L in their last 65 games (0.94 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 40W 12D 13L in their last 65 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.25 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 5-1 Cadiz on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
0
Draws
4
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Atletico Madrid?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Cadiz 2-0 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 38%, Atletico Madrid 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Cadiz) and 41% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 38%; Cadiz have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Atletico Madrid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cadiz's recent matches and 41% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Atletico Madrid matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cadiz's recent games and 41% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Atletico Madrid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Cadiz's recent matches and 66% of Atletico Madrid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atletico Madrid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Atletico Madrid 2-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.01 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.44 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico Madrid landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.74 / defence 1.19 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Atletico Madrid 45%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Cadiz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 28%, Atletico Madrid 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Cadiz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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