Athletic Club 1-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Athletic Club (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Athletic Club face Las Palmas.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Athletic Club host Las Palmas at San Mamés Barria in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Athletic Club — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Athletic Club have posted 6W 4D 0L at San Mamés Barria — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at San Mamés Barria. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Las Palmas stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Las Palmas have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Athletic Club have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Athletic Club: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Las Palmas, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 3–2 with Athletic Club winning.
The historical record gives Athletic Club a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Athletic Club in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 49% versus Las Palmas 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 41% | Las Palmas 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.94 xG and Las Palmas 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.300 / defence 0.739 | Las Palmas attack 0.966 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.253. Athletic Club carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Athletic Club's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 70 Athletic Club games / 70 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 62% | Draw 21% | Las Palmas 17%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Las Palmas 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 50% | Las Palmas 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 62% | Draw 21% | Las Palmas 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Athletic Club 1.94 / Las Palmas 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.300 / def 0.739 | Las Palmas attack 0.966 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Las Palmas xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Las Palmas kick off?
Athletic Club vs Las Palmas kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Athletic Club 1 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Athletic Club vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Las Palmas part of?
Athletic Club vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 62% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Athletic Club and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Las Palmas?
Record (3 meetings): Athletic Club 3W | Draws 0 | Las Palmas 0W.
What form are Athletic Club and Las Palmas in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Las Palmas (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Athletic Club's attack rating (1.30) and Las Palmas's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.66
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.83
0.90
Las Palmas xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
14%
6.95
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
2%
41.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.90 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Las Palmas?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 34W 23D 13L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 18W 18D 34L from 70 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Las Palmas.
Venue Form
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 2.14 PPG from 35 outings (21W 12D 2L).
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 8W 7D 20L from 35 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 1.01 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Las Palmas
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 34W 23D 13L in their last 70 games (1.79 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 18W 18D 34L in their last 70 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Las Palmas away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.14 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Athletic Club go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Las Palmas specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
0
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Las Palmas?
From 4 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 4, Las Palmas have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2025, when Athletic Club 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Las Palmas?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 51%, Las Palmas 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Athletic Club) and 43% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Las Palmas in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 51% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Athletic Club's recent games and 43% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Las Palmas 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Las Palmas 1-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.94 xG and Las Palmas 0.90 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Las Palmas landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.30 / defence 0.74 against Las Palmas attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 62% | Draw 21% | Las Palmas 17%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 41%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Las Palmas's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.