Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Alaves at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Celta Vigo.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Alaves and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Current Form

Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Alaves have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Celta Vigo have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Celta Vigo's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Alaves, 2 for Celta Vigo and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Alaves 1–1 Celta Vigo — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 38% versus Celta Vigo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 25% | Celta Vigo 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.29 xG and Celta Vigo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.783 / defence 0.939 | Celta Vigo attack 1.146 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.103. Alaves's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Celta Vigo's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Alaves's last 32 games and Celta Vigo's last 70.

Result probabilities: Alaves 39% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 33%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.60 | Draw 3.56 | Celta Vigo 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 40% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 away games).

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