Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-5 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 5W 4D 0L from 9 home games — 2.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.70 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Suwon City FC trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% versus Suwon City FC 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Suwon City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.49 xG and Suwon City FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.207 / defence 0.948 | Suwon City FC attack 0.873 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 0.930 / away 1.299. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 20 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Suwon City FC 3.85. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Suwon City FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.49 / Suwon City FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.207 / def 0.948 | Suwon City FC attack 0.873 / def 1.331 | league avg home 0.930 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Suwon City FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 5 Suwon City FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 46% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.56
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.07
Suwon City FC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
17.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.07 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 10W 7D 2L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 6W 5D 8L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (5W 4D 0L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 68%.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 10W 7D 2L in their last 19 games (1.95 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.11 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, Suwon City FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 56% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Suwon City FC run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-5 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.49 xG and Suwon City FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.07 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.95 against Suwon City FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.33, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 26%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.