Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Group - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.70 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon City FC in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 3 for Suwon City FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–4 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Suwon City FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and Suwon City FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.908 / defence 0.935 | Suwon City FC attack 1.262 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.227. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Suwon City FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 36 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 / Suwon City FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.908 / def 0.935 | Suwon City FC attack 1.262 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Suwon City FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC is a Relegation Group - 36 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 44% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (9 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 2 | Suwon City FC 3W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.03
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.18
1.45
Suwon City FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.45 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 31W 20D 22L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 25W 17D 31L from 73 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.55 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 1.89 PPG from 36 outings (20W 8D 8L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 9W 9D 18L from 36 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 31W 20D 22L in their last 73 games (1.55 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 25W 17D 31L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.89 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%, Suwon City FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 53% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 64% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 36, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and Suwon City FC 1.45 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Suwon City FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.27, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, Suwon City FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.55 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.