Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 23 October 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jeju United FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jeju United FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Ulsan Hyundai FC's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jeju United FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Jeju United FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.58 xG and Jeju United FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.090 / defence 0.794 | Jeju United FC attack 1.034 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.241. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Jeju United FC 4.17. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Jeju United FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.58 / Jeju United FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.090 / def 0.794 | Jeju United FC attack 1.034 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Jeju United FC xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 50% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.09x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.03x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.97
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.60
1.02
Jeju United FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
5%
19.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.02 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 75 games, going 43W 21D 11L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.35 PPG from 75 outings (25W 26D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 25W 9D 3L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.38 points per game from 37 outings (13W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 60%.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 11L in their last 75 games (2.00 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 25W 26D 24L in their last 75 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.27 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
0
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Jeju United FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 54% (Jeju United FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 57% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 54% of Jeju United FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.58 xG and Jeju United FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Jeju United FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 24%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%, Jeju United FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Jeju United FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.