Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 1.40 PPG versus Daejeon Citizen's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Daejeon Citizen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 0, Daejeon Citizen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% and Daejeon Citizen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 68% | Daejeon Citizen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.12 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.214 / defence 1.072 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.044 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.158. Daejeon Citizen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 29 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 21% | Daejeon Citizen 23%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Daejeon Citizen 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Daejeon Citizen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 21% | Daejeon Citizen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.12 / Daejeon Citizen 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.214 / def 1.072 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.044 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Daejeon Citizen xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 56% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (1 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.75
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.41
1.30
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
3%
36.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.30 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 20W 4D 7L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 11W 10D 10L from 31 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Daejeon Citizen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.13 PPG from 15 outings (10W 2D 3L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 6D 6L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.58 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Daejeon Citizen in 61%.
Last 31 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 20W 4D 7L in their last 31 games (2.06 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 11W 10D 10L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.13 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 73%, Daejeon Citizen at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 60% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 67% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 60% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 1-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.12 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.30 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.07 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.04 / defence 1.30, drawn from 62/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 21% | Daejeon Citizen 23%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 68%, Daejeon Citizen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.