Suwon City FC 3-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Seongnam FC at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Suwon World Cup Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Seongnam FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Suwon City FC have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Suwon City FC have won 1, Seongnam FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2021, ended 3–2 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 62% versus Seongnam FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 59% | Seongnam FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.19 xG and Seongnam FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.999 / defence 1.060 | Seongnam FC attack 0.685 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.153. Seongnam FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Suwon City FC games / 29 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 30% | Seongnam FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Seongnam FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 60% | Seongnam FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 30% | Seongnam FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Suwon City FC 1.19 / Seongnam FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.999 / def 1.060 | Seongnam FC attack 0.685 / def 1.206 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Seongnam FC xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 08:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Suwon City FC 3 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon City FC 1W | Draws 0 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Seongnam FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Seongnam FC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.34
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.02
0.84
Seongnam FC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.84 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 11W 8D 10L from 29 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Seongnam FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 12L across 29 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.41 PPG, Seongnam FC on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 6W 3D 4L from 13 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seongnam FC's away record stands at 2W 6D 5L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 11W 8D 10L in their last 29 games (1.41 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
3
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2022, when Suwon City FC 2-1 Seongnam FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 62%, Seongnam FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Suwon City FC) and 38% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Seongnam FC in 31%; Seongnam FC in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 38% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 38% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Seongnam FC 3-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.19 xG and Seongnam FC 0.84 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Seongnam FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 30% | Seongnam FC 26%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 59%, Seongnam FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.41 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.