Suwon City FC 1-2 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Suwon City FC take on Seongnam FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Seongnam FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 0.86 xG and Seongnam FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.787 / defence 1.025 | Seongnam FC attack 0.742 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 0.876. Suwon City FC's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Suwon City FC games / 3 Seongnam FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 37% | Draw 37% | Seongnam FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Seongnam FC 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Seongnam FC's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 37% | Draw 37% | Seongnam FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Suwon City FC 0.86 / Seongnam FC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.787 / def 1.025 | Seongnam FC attack 0.742 / def 1.145 | league avg home 0.953 / away 0.876 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Seongnam FC xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 14 March 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 2 Seongnam FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 37% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.79x the league average against Seongnam FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.71
37%
2.67
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
1.52
0.67
Seongnam FC xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.48
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 14.5 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.4%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.67 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
3
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2022, when Suwon City FC 2-1 Seongnam FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 0.86 xG and Seongnam FC 0.67 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Seongnam FC outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Seongnam FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 37% | Draw 37% | Seongnam FC 26%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Seongnam FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.