Suwon City FC 3-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.43 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.404 / defence 1.529 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.825 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.227. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.404 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Suwon City FC games / 8 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Suwon City FC 1.43 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.404 / def 1.529 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.825 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Suwon City FC 3 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 34% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Suwon City FC home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.40x the league average against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.82x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 41/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.74
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.98
1.55
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.55 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1-4 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Suwon City FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.43 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.40 / defence 1.53 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.