Suwon City FC 0-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Jeonbuk Motors 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.396 / defence 1.622 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.191 / defence 0.687. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.103. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 1.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.687 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Suwon City FC games / 46 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 20% | Draw 20% | Jeonbuk Motors 59%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Jeonbuk Motors 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 20% | Draw 20% | Jeonbuk Motors 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Suwon City FC 1.18 / Jeonbuk Motors 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.396 / def 1.622 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.191 / def 0.687 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Jeonbuk Motors xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon City FC 0 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 20% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 59% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.40) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.19x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.62x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
20%
4.92
20%
4.89
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.31
2.13
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.92
20%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
12%
8.42
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
2%
41.47
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 2.13 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 14W 9D 15L from 38 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 6L across 38 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 9W 3D 7L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 9W 7D 3L across 19 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.87 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 63%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Suwon City FC) and 42% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 37%; Jeonbuk Motors in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 2.13 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.40 / defence 1.62 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.19 / defence 0.69, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 20% | Draw 20% | Jeonbuk Motors 59%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 60%, Jeonbuk Motors 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.