Suwon City FC 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Wednesday 4 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Suwon Sports Complex this season.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record: 4W 4D 1L from 9 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Suwon City FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Jeonbuk Motors's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Jeonbuk Motors in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 78% and Jeonbuk Motors 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 67% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.13 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.149 / defence 1.392 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.042 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 0.940 / away 1.345. Data: 21 Suwon City FC games / 18 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 20% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 54%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Jeonbuk Motors 1.85. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.13 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Suwon City FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | Jeonbuk Motors 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 20% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Suwon City FC 1.13 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.149 / def 1.392 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.042 / def 1.049 | league avg home 0.940 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Jeonbuk Motors xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 4 August 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon City FC 1 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 20% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.15) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.04x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 21/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
20%
5.06
26%
3.87
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.95
Jeonbuk Motors xG
5.06
20%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
14%
7.03
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
3%
35.53
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.95 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 3L across 18 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 4W 4D 1L across 9 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.89 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Jeonbuk Motors in 67%.
Last 18 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.22 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 89% for Suwon City FC, 67% for Jeonbuk Motors — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Suwon City FC) and 33% (Jeonbuk Motors). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Suwon City FC's games and 67% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Suwon City FC's matches and 33% of Jeonbuk Motors's.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.13 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.95 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.39 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 21/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 20% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 54%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 67%, Jeonbuk Motors 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.