Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Suwon City FC travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Suwon Bluewings) versus 1.00 (Suwon City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Suwon Bluewings, 2 for Suwon City FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Suwon City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Suwon City FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 45% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.06 xG and Suwon City FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.029 / defence 1.095 | Suwon City FC attack 0.923 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.016 / away 1.119. Data: 34 Suwon Bluewings games / 34 Suwon City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 34% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon City FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 50% | Suwon City FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 34% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.06 / Suwon City FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.029 / def 1.095 | Suwon City FC attack 0.923 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.016 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Suwon City FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 34% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 0W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (1.03) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.43
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.19
1.13
Suwon City FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.13 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 14W 9D 15L from 38 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.21 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 6D 8L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Suwon City FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.11 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
0
Draws
7
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 58%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Suwon Bluewings) and 58% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 26% of games; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Suwon Bluewings's matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.06 xG and Suwon City FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Suwon City FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 34% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 37%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 50%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.21 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.