Seongnam FC 4-4 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 41%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Tancheon Sports Complex to face Seongnam FC in K League 1, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Current Form
Seongnam FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Seongnam FC at Tancheon Sports Complex this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daegu FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daegu FC's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Daegu FC are 0.70 PPG clear of Seongnam FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Seongnam FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Daegu FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Daegu FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Daegu FC winning.
It is worth noting that Daegu FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 47% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 45% | Daegu FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.66 xG and Daegu FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.944 / defence 1.329 | Daegu FC attack 0.920 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.241. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Seongnam FC games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 41% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Daegu FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Seongnam FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Seongnam FC 60% | Daegu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 41% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Seongnam FC 1.66 / Daegu FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.944 / def 1.329 | Daegu FC attack 0.920 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Daegu FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Seongnam FC 4 - 4 Daegu FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 41% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Seongnam FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Seongnam FC 0W | Draws 3 | Daegu FC 3W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.92x) against Seongnam FC's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
41%
2.42
23%
4.26
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
3.18
1.52
Daegu FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.52 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Seongnam FC have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 18W 19D 38L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Daegu FC's form line: 25W 25D 25L from 75 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Seongnam FC against 1.33 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Seongnam FC have posted 1.16 PPG from 37 outings (11W 10D 16L).
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 9W 13D 15L from 37 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 18W 19D 38L in their last 75 games (0.97 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 25W 25D 25L in their last 75 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Seongnam FC
4
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 0, Daegu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 4-4 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 46%, Daegu FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Seongnam FC) and 51% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC have failed to score in 35% of games; Daegu FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Seongnam FC's games and 65% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 51% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seongnam FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Seongnam FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Seongnam FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC and Daegu FC finished level at 4-4 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Relegation Round - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.66 xG and Daegu FC 1.52 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Seongnam FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against Daegu FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 41% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 35%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 45%, Daegu FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 0.97 PPG, Daegu FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.