Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gwangju FC at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Gwangju FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024, 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at Gimcheon Stadium this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Gwangju FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Gwangju FC's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Gwangju FC 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.18 xG and Gwangju FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / defence 1.220 | Gwangju FC attack 0.904 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.095. Data: 5 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 38 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Gwangju FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Gwangju FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.18 / Gwangju FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / def 1.220 | Gwangju FC attack 0.904 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Gwangju FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 33% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.88) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.13
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Gwangju FC xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.21 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 38 games, going 7W 13D 18L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.55 PPG from 38 outings (16W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Gwangju FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 4W 5D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gwangju FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 7W 13D 18L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gwangju FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 0.89 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 26% for Gwangju FC.
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC in 32%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 26% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gwangju FC 2-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.18 xG and Gwangju FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.22 against Gwangju FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 35%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.