Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gimcheon Stadium plays host to Gimcheon Sangmu FC versus Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 13 September 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.30 for Gangwon FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 3W to 5W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2026, ended 0–2 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55% versus Gangwon FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Gangwon FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.94 xG and Gangwon FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.906 / defence 0.969 | Gangwon FC attack 0.929 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.321. Data: 61 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 60 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Gangwon FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Gangwon FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.94 / Gangwon FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.906 / def 0.969 | Gangwon FC attack 0.929 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Gangwon FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 26% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (9 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3W | Draws 1 | Gangwon FC 5W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.91) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.93x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
26%
3.82
35%
2.86
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.13
1.19
Gangwon FC xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.19 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 22W 24D 19L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 23W 24D 18L from 65 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.43 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (11W 12D 10L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 13W 9D 11L from 33 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Gangwon FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 22W 24D 19L in their last 65 games (1.38 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 23W 24D 18L in their last 65 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gangwon FC's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
5
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Gangwon FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 39% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 42%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Gangwon FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 36% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 39% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.94 xG and Gangwon FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Gangwon FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 39%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.38 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.