Pohang Steelers 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 47%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Championship Round - 3 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 October 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 5W 3D 2L at Steelyard Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at Steelyard Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Pohang Steelers's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pohang Steelers register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 53% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 41% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.36 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.094 / defence 0.820 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.886 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Data: 66 Pohang Steelers games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.00. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Pohang Steelers 80% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Oct 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.36 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.094 / def 0.820 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.886 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:00 on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 47% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 1.09x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.61
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.26
0.90
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.90 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 73 games, going 27W 20D 26L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 73 outings (42W 20D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 14W 10D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.72 points per game from 36 outings (17W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.60 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 27W 20D 26L in their last 73 games (1.38 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 42W 20D 11L in their last 73 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.44 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 56%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pohang Steelers) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Pohang Steelers's games and 56% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Championship Round - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.36 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 41%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.