Jeju United FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Jeju United FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.94 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.760 / defence 0.881 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.875 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.180. Jeju United FC's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Jeju United FC games / 10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 33% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 33% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Jeju United FC 0.94 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.760 / def 0.881 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.875 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeju United FC 3 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 34% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Jeju United FC home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.76) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
34%
2.92
33%
3.00
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.85
0.91
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 14.2 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.91 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.94 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.91 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.76 / defence 0.88 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 33% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.