Jeju United FC 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeju United FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.42 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.975 / defence 1.150 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 0.337. Data: 1 Jeju United FC games / 1 Jeonbuk Motors games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 62% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 6%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 1.61 | Draw 3.12 | Jeonbuk Motors 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Jeju United FC (62%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Jeonbuk Motors's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 32% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 62% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 25% | xG Jeju United FC 1.42 / Jeonbuk Motors 0.35 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.975 / def 1.150 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.266 / away 0.337 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.35
Jeonbuk Motors xG
25%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 62% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 6% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 23.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.2%), 2-0 (17.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 58% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
62%
1.62
32%
3.15
6%
15.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
24.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
17.2%
Home win
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.77
0.35
Jeonbuk Motors xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
15.60
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.01
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
70%
1.42
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
44%
2.29
2%
64.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 24.2 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 17.2 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.35 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeju United FC
4
Draws
3
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Jeju United FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors finished level at 1-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.42 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.35 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 62% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 6%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.