Incheon United 0-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Pohang Steelers travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Incheon United stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Incheon United have posted 4W 2D 4L at Sungui Arena Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pohang Steelers — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Incheon United 0.90 PPG, Pohang Steelers 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Incheon United trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Pohang Steelers trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 44% versus Pohang Steelers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 42% | Pohang Steelers 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.83 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.724 / defence 0.992 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.847 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 0.936 / away 1.264. Incheon United's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pohang Steelers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Incheon United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Incheon United games / 33 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 40%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Pohang Steelers 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 30% | Pohang Steelers 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Incheon United 0.83 / Pohang Steelers 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.724 / def 0.992 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.847 / def 1.225 | league avg home 0.936 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pohang Steelers xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Incheon United 0 - 0 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 28% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Incheon United and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Pohang Steelers in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.72) and Pohang Steelers's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
28%
3.57
32%
3.16
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.89
1.06
Pohang Steelers xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
18%
5.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.06 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 12W 9D 15L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Pohang Steelers's form line: 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.25 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Incheon United are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.11 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 36 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Incheon United's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.35 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Incheon United's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Incheon United
4
Draws
5
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 1, Pohang Steelers have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Incheon United 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 29%, Pohang Steelers 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Incheon United and 35% for Pohang Steelers.
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 47% of games; Pohang Steelers in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Pohang Steelers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Incheon United's recent matches and 53% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Incheon United's recent games and 35% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Incheon United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Relegation Round - 4, as Incheon United and Pohang Steelers drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.83 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.06 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Incheon United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Pohang Steelers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 28% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 40%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 42%, Pohang Steelers 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.25 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.