Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.40 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 4 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 49% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.185 / defence 0.813 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.062 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.232. Data: 47 Gangwon FC games / 47 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Gangwon FC 1.26 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.185 / def 0.813 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.062 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 40% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (8 meetings): Gangwon FC 2W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.37
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.06
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.06 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 32W 20D 24L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 32W 20D 24L from 76 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.53 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.79 PPG from 38 outings (18W 14D 6L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 11W 12D 15L from 38 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.79 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gangwon FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gangwon FC) and 34% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 34% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.81 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 49%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.