FC Seoul 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as FC Seoul take on Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul World Cup Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 51% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 42% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.092 / defence 0.994 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.959 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.190. Data: 35 FC Seoul games / 35 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 33% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 33% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Seoul 1.12 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.092 / def 0.994 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.959 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 33% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Seoul's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
34%
2.94
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.25
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.13 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 23W 24D 29L from 76 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 43W 21D 12L across 76 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Seoul heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 11W 11D 16L from 38 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 18W 12D 8L across 38 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 23W 24D 29L in their last 76 games (1.22 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.16 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.74 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Seoul) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%; FC Seoul have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Seoul's recent games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out FC Seoul 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Seoul 1-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 33% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.