FC Seoul 3-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Seongnam FC at Seoul Olympic Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul Olympic Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Seoul Olympic Stadium this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Seoul 1.50 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Seoul have won 0, Seongnam FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 51% versus Seongnam FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 43% | Seongnam FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.22 xG and Seongnam FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.915 / defence 1.173 | Seongnam FC attack 0.663 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.264. Seongnam FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing FC Seoul's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 FC Seoul games / 33 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 41% | Draw 29% | Seongnam FC 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Seongnam FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 50% | Seongnam FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Seoul Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 41% | Draw 29% | Seongnam FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Seoul 1.22 / Seongnam FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.915 / def 1.173 | Seongnam FC attack 0.663 / def 1.415 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Seongnam FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Seoul Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
FC Seoul 3 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul Olympic Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 41% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Seoul and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
Record (3 meetings): FC Seoul 0W | Draws 2 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Seongnam FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Seoul's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.46
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.20
0.98
Seongnam FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.98 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Seongnam FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 14L across 35 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.14 PPG, Seongnam FC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 4W 5D 8L from 17 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seongnam FC's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Seoul are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.91 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Seongnam FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.00 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.88 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC Seoul
3
Draws
3
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 2, Seongnam FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when FC Seoul 0-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
Seongnam FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 47%, Seongnam FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 47% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul have failed to score in 41% of games; Seongnam FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 47% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Seoul's recent games and 47% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Seoul run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Seongnam FC 3-0 at Seoul Olympic Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.22 xG and Seongnam FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Seongnam FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Seongnam FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.42, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 41% | Draw 29% | Seongnam FC 30%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 43%, Seongnam FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.14 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.