Daejeon Citizen 0-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to face Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 June 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Daejeon Citizen. A 0.70 PPG lead over Suwon City FC (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daejeon Citizen lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Daejeon Citizen half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 62% and Suwon City FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 55% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.46 xG and Suwon City FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.858 / defence 0.822 | Suwon City FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.134. Data: 52 Daejeon Citizen games / 52 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 53% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon City FC 4.76. Daejeon Citizen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Suwon City FC lead the H2H ledger, but Daejeon Citizen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Daejeon Citizen 60% | Suwon City FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 53% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.46 / Suwon City FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.858 / def 0.822 | Suwon City FC attack 0.860 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Suwon City FC xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 June 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 53% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
Record (5 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 1W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 3W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daejeon Citizen's attack at 0.86x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.86x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.75
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.26
0.80
Suwon City FC xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
5%
20.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 0.80 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 14W 15D 11L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 9W 9D 22L from 40 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Daejeon Citizen are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 4D 12L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Suwon City FC in 62%.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 14W 15D 11L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.65 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 3-0 on 18 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
1
Draws
5
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 60%, Suwon City FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Daejeon Citizen) and 60% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 55% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Daejeon Citizen's matches and 60% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.46 xG and Suwon City FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Suwon City FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 53% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 21%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 55%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.