Daegu FC 0-5 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022, 06:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Daegu Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeonbuk Motors — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus Jeonbuk Motors 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Jeonbuk Motors 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.07 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.887 / defence 0.857 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.103 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.190. Data: 63 Daegu FC games / 63 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 34% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 37%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 40% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 34% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Daegu FC 1.07 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.887 / def 0.857 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.103 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daegu FC 0 - 5 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 34% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.89x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.43
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.12 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 23D 24L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 36W 20D 12L from 68 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Daegu FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.56 PPG from 34 outings (14W 11D 9L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 19W 9D 6L from 34 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.60 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 21W 23D 24L in their last 68 games (1.26 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 36W 20D 12L in their last 68 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Daegu FC) and 44% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 50% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Daegu FC's recent games and 44% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Jeonbuk Motors run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 0-5 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.07 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.12 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 34% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 37%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Jeonbuk Motors 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.