Daegu FC 4-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daegu FC face Jeonbuk Motors.

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Analysis & Preview

Jeonbuk Motors travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC in K League 1 (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 08:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Daegu FC stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Daegu FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Jeonbuk Motors away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Daegu FC at 1.30 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Daegu FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Jun 2024, ended Daegu FC 3–0 Jeonbuk Motors — a Daegu FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Daegu FC trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 50% versus Jeonbuk Motors 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 41% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%). Note also that Jeonbuk Motors surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.33 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.949 / defence 0.922 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.136 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.203. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 65 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 65.

Result probabilities: Daegu FC 38% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 35%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.60 | Draw 3.78 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Jeonbuk Motors 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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