Gangwon FC 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Gangwon FC welcome Daegu FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Gangneung Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Gangneung Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Gangwon FC) versus 1.30 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 1 for Daegu FC and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Gangwon FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Daegu FC trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 58% versus Daegu FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 41% | Daegu FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.90 xG and Daegu FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.499 / defence 1.102 | Daegu FC attack 1.035 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.238. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.499 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Gangwon FC games / 64 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 22% | Daegu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Daegu FC 3.45. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 70% | Daegu FC 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 22% | Daegu FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Gangwon FC 1.90 / Daegu FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.499 / def 1.102 | Daegu FC attack 1.035 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Daegu FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 49% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Gangwon FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Gangwon FC 3W | Draws 2 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.50) and Daegu FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
49%
2.04
22%
4.49
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.41
Daegu FC xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
4%
23.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.41 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 23D 24L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Daegu FC's form line: 21W 24D 24L from 69 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.29 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (13W 12D 9L).
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 10W 8D 16L from 34 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.12 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 69 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 22W 23D 24L in their last 69 games (1.29 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 21W 24D 24L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
4
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 71%, Daegu FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gangwon FC) and 44% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Gangwon FC's games and 47% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 44% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Daegu FC finished level at 1-1 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.90 xG and Daegu FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.50 / defence 1.10 against Daegu FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 22% | Daegu FC 29%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 41%, Daegu FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.29 PPG, Daegu FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.