Daegu FC 1-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daegu FC host FC Seoul at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Seoul — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC Seoul's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 1 for FC Seoul and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 48% versus FC Seoul 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 43% | FC Seoul 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.14 xG and FC Seoul 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.934 / defence 0.903 | FC Seoul attack 1.045 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.266. Data: 63 Daegu FC games / 63 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 35% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 37%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | FC Seoul 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Daegu FC dominate the H2H record, yet FC Seoul are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | FC Seoul 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 35% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Daegu FC 1.14 / FC Seoul 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.934 / def 0.903 | FC Seoul attack 1.045 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Seoul xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 35% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daegu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
Record (6 meetings): Daegu FC 3W | Draws 2 | FC Seoul 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.93) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
35%
2.90
28%
3.56
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
FC Seoul xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.20 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daegu FC come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 23D 24L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.49 PPG from 68 outings (27W 20D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.26 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Daegu FC's home form reads 11W 15D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.41 points per game from 34 outings (12W 12D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.60 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 21W 23D 24L in their last 68 games (1.26 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 27W 20D 21L in their last 68 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.41 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, FC Seoul 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Daegu FC) and 50% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Daegu FC's games and 62% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Daegu FC's recent games and 50% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 31, as Daegu FC and FC Seoul drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.14 xG and FC Seoul 1.20 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against FC Seoul attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 35% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 37%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 43%, FC Seoul 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.26 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.