Daegu FC 0-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Daegu FC welcome FC Anyang to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.74 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.299 / defence 1.059 | FC Anyang attack 0.914 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.116. Daegu FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Daegu FC games / 4 FC Anyang games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 53% | Draw 24% | FC Anyang 24%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | FC Anyang 4.17. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 53% | Draw 24% | FC Anyang 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Daegu FC 1.74 / FC Anyang 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.299 / def 1.059 | FC Anyang attack 0.914 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FC Anyang xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Daegu FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Daegu FC 0 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Daegu FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Daegu FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 53% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Daegu FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Anyang?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and FC Anyang in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Daegu FC home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (1.30) and FC Anyang's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.22
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.08
FC Anyang xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
4%
24.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.08 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and FC Anyang runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2025, when FC Anyang won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
2
Draws
2
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Anyang?
From 4 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 0, FC Anyang have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and FC Anyang?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Daegu FC 0-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.74 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.06 against FC Anyang attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 53% | Draw 24% | FC Anyang 24%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.