Bucheon FC 1995 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Final as Bucheon FC 1995 welcome Suwon City FC to Bucheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 December 2025 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon City FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 1.59 xG and Suwon City FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Suwon City FC attack 1.228 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.226. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Bucheon FC 1995's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 0 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 35% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Suwon City FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Final | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 35% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 1.59 / Suwon City FC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Suwon City FC attack 1.228 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Suwon City FC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 10:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC is a Final fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 35% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Suwon City FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Suwon City FC away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bucheon FC 1995's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Bucheon FC 1995's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
35%
2.87
24%
4.10
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
3.32
1.73
Suwon City FC xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
6%
16.20
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.73 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bucheon FC 1995
0
Draws
0
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Suwon City FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 2, Suwon City FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2025, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Suwon City FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Bucheon FC 1995 defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bucheon FC 1995 beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Bucheon Stadium, Final, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 1.59 xG and Suwon City FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Suwon City FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.24, drawn from 0/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 35% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 41%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bucheon FC 1995 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.