Bucheon FC 1995 2-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC meet at Bucheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bucheon FC 1995's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bucheon FC 1995 at Bucheon Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Jeju United FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Jeju United FC are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bucheon FC 1995 0W, Jeju United FC 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Jeju United FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bucheon FC 1995 half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bucheon FC 1995 43% versus Jeju United FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bucheon FC 1995 43% | Jeju United FC 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 0.81 xG and Jeju United FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.822 / defence 1.343 | Jeju United FC attack 0.995 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.307. Data: 28 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 61 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 15% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 57%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Jeju United FC 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Jeju United FC (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bucheon FC 1995 40% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 15% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 0.81 / Jeju United FC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.822 / def 1.343 | Jeju United FC attack 0.995 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Jeju United FC xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 2 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 15% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC?
Record (2 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 0W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 2W.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bucheon FC 1995's attack rating (0.82) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.99x) against Bucheon FC 1995's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 28/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
15%
6.78
28%
3.57
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.56
1.75
Jeju United FC xG
6.78
15%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
3%
38.86
25%
3.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.75 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Bucheon FC 1995 have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 8W 10D 12L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Jeju United FC's form line: 13W 9D 8L from 30 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Jeju United FC are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bucheon FC 1995.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bucheon FC 1995 have posted 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (2W 5D 5L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 7W 2D 3L from 12 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.17 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Jeju United FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bucheon FC 1995 at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeju United FC's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bucheon FC 1995 at home: 0.92 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
1
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Bucheon FC 1995 2-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bucheon FC 1995 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bucheon FC 1995 42%, Jeju United FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bucheon FC 1995) and 33% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Bucheon FC 1995 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 42%; Bucheon FC 1995 have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 50% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 33% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 0.81 xG and Jeju United FC 1.75 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bucheon FC 1995 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Jeju United FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 28/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 15% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 57%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 43%, Jeju United FC 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (30 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (30 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeju United FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bucheon FC 1995 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.